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Experts' Stated Behavior

School of Technical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Department of Econometrics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands
y.boulaksil{at}tue.nl
franses{at}few.eur.nl

We asked experts who adjust model-based sales forecasts what they do to adjust these forecasts and why they feel it necessary to make adjustments. To accomplish this, we developed a questionnaire that included a range of questions. We sent it to 100 forecasting experts in the same company; of these, 42 respondents in 20 countries completed it. They indicated that they feel that model-based forecasts miss relevant events and are not approximately adequate. When previous sales figures fluctuate greatly, the experts feel that they need to make more adjustments. The forecasters also indicated that they would like to learn more about their company's forecasting model.

Key Words: model forecasts; expert forecasts; decision making; stated behavior